...unless you buy any MacBook/Pro with a butterfly keyboard; then you have a $700 repair bill in your future. Bank on it.I would echo similar feelings about system purchases for medium-sized businesses, except for the last item. Refurbs are super, but if you are buying multiple multiples of Apple hardware, then the statistics strongly favour not paying for AppleCare. On average you will not pay more for repairs than you pay in AppleCare premiums, and people who buy a lot of Apple hardware have enough "on average" purchases to ensure that they will come out ahead. "Self insurance" is really the way to go. I generally recommend that if you are going to purchase five or more systems from Apple over the long haul (and most families hit this mark fairly easily, businesses even more so), you are better off forgoing the AppleCare.
Of course, it doesn't feel like a smart decision when you are stuck with a multi-hundred-dollar repair bill. You have to keep reminding yourself that you would have been worse off paying for many multiple-hundred dollar AppleCare purchases over the years.
If a system craps out in the first year and gets repaired under the "standard" coverage, I tell people that in that situation it might be ok to buy the extended coverage, but even then, I suspect that the numbers still come out in Apple's favour for most businesses.